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Momentum is a leader's best friend: with it everything seems easier, without it everything harder. Manuela Schwesig's election campaign in the summer of 2026 shows that momentum does not fall from the sky. It is built. This article does not assess political content, but the leadership performance in a comeback. An example of the Law of the Big Mo.
The starting position: headwind
Situation
In September 2025, polls put the SPD at 19 percent and the AfD at 38 percent. The national trend was running against the governing parties.
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Whoever leads is responsible for the momentum, even if they did not cause the headwind. Waiting is not an option, because standing still reinforces the downward trend.
Defining the playing field
Situation
Schwesig ran a campaign deliberately focused on state politics and kept her distance from the national party. Her topics were the economy, energy prices and support for families and older people.
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Momentum arises where you can win. Schwesig concentrated on the field she herself could shape. That is focus: not tying up your energy in questions that others decide.
Making small gains visible
Situation
The figures rose step by step: to 32 to 33 percent at the beginning of September, to around 35 percent shortly before the election. On the question of a direct vote, Schwesig was far ahead of her challenger with 59 percent (28 percent).
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Momentum feeds on progress that people can see. Each gain made the next one more likely, because supporters believed in success again.
The person as the driving force
Situation
Her personal approval ratings were well above those of the party. The campaign was tailored to the Minister-President.
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Momentum begins with the leader. Her confidence and her presence carry over to the organisation long before the numbers confirm it.
The result and its limit
Situation
On 20 September 2026, the SPD reached 35.5 percent on a turnout of 78.1 percent. The AfD became the strongest party with 38.2 percent; the CDU, with 4.9 percent, failed to enter the state parliament. The day after, Schwesig announced talks with the Left Party and the Greens; together the three parties hold 39 of 71 seats.
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Momentum magnifies what is there, but it does not close every gap. The comeback was not enough for first place. It was enough to remain able to act.
Key takeaways
Key lessons
- You are responsible for the momentum, even if you did not cause the headwind.
- Choose the field where you can shape things, and stay there.
- Make progress visible. People need evidence that things are moving forward.
- Your own confidence is the first driving force.
- Use momentum while it is there: the next task begins the day after.
Summary
In twelve months, the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern gained around 16 percentage points. The decisive factors were a clear restriction to its own field, visible interim successes and a leader who herself became the carrier of the movement. Whether a stable government will emerge from this is open.